NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: Senator Lindsey Graham Vulnerable in South Carolina, GOP Base Cracks Begin to Show

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: Senator Lindsey Graham Vulnerable in South Carolina, GOP Base Cracks Begin to Show

COLUMBIA, SC, UNITED STATES, June 17, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- South Carolina Voters Signal Shifts in GOP Loyalty and Leadership Preferences
Quantus Insights surveyed 600 registered voters in South Carolina between June 10–13, 2025. The data paints a troubling picture for Senator Lindsey Graham. While still in the fight, he is not on dominant ground. Beneath the surface, the numbers reveal a party divided, a base uneasy, and a state in flux.

Graham’s Approval Under Strain
Graham’s statewide approval stands at 41%, with 46% disapproving and 13% unsure. For an incumbent in a red state, that's shaky footing. But the partisan breakdown is where the alarms really sound:
• Republicans: 68% approve, 25% disapprove — a warning sign for a sitting senator who should be showing far more comfort.
• Independents: Just 27% approve, while 52% disapprove — a 25-point deficit with swing voters.
• Democrats: 71% disapprove, only 16% approve — as expected, a hard wall of opposition.
His net +43 among Republicans may look solid at first glance, but nearly 1 in 4 GOP voters now reject him. That’s not just friction; it’s vulnerability. In an era defined by populist energy and anti-establishment sentiment, Graham’s brand of traditional conservatism appears increasingly out of sync with portions of the base.

Appetite for a Primary Challenge
When voters were asked about supporting Graham versus a challenger in 2026, the results were clear: the base is restless.
All respondents:
• 31% would definitely support a challenger
• 23% probably would
• Only 13% prefer Graham, with 8% firmly backing him
• 25% remain unsure
Among Republicans:
• 22% definitely support a challenger
• 23% probably would
• Just 17% each say they prefer or strongly back Graham (34%)
• 21% are undecided
Graham commands loyalty from only 34% of Republican voters, while 45% are inclined to support someone new. The remaining fifth are persuadable. That’s an open lane for any credible challenger with name ID and grassroots pull.

Head-to-Head: Graham vs. Lynch
In a hypothetical Republican primary matchup:
• Graham leads with 48%
• Mark Lynch draws 23%
• 29% remain undecided
While Graham leads by 25 points, he’s under 50%. That alone is a red flag for any incumbent. Nearly 1 in 3 Republican voters haven’t made up their minds, and with just under half backing him, this isn’t a show of strength, it’s a holding pattern. The potential for a breakout challenger remains real.

Trump Factor: Endorsement vs. Exposure
Graham’s alignment with Trump still matters, but it doesn’t guarantee cover. Voters are starting to judge by policy, not proximity. His support for Trump may still earn points, but it’s no longer a one-size-fits-all defense against populist revolt.

Policy Flashpoints: Social Security & Ukraine
Two issues illustrate where Graham is bleeding support:
• Social Security: His proposal to raise the eligibility age is unpopular, especially with blue-collar and senior voters — a dangerous gamble in a state heavy with both.
• Ukraine Aid: Continued U.S. funding for the Ukraine war splits Republicans. Foreign policy hawkishness may no longer sell the way it used to among voters focused on domestic issues.
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Trump’s Economic Ratings: Divided Confidence
Trump’s overall approval in the state stands at 50%, with 44% disapproval. On the economy, voters are split:
• 42% rate his performance positively
• 12% call it “fair”
• 41% rate it “poor”
Among Republicans, 78% approve — a solid foundation. But among independents, only 25% rate him positively, and 61% give neutral or negative marks.
On trade, skepticism runs deeper:
• Only 32% say Trump’s policies are helping South Carolina
• 46% believe they’re hurting
• 23% are neutral
Republicans remain loyal (57% positive), but independents lean away: 51% say trade policy is harming the state, and just 18% see it as beneficial. Among Democrats, opposition is near-unanimous (79% say it’s hurting the economy).

Bottom Line
Graham is still standing, but the floor beneath him is shifting. Trump remains popular, but even his numbers on the economy and trade show wear. With a restless GOP base, a wary middle, and crosswinds on policy, South Carolina’s Republican leadership faces a potential reckoning. The old alliances are fraying and the 2026 primary may be the place where it all comes to a head.

Quantus Insights is a premier provider of polling, election forecasting, economic analysis, and advanced modeling. Our mission is clear: to provide political and economic intelligence that influences decision-making in elections and public policy. Quantus was recently rated by AFI - America First Insight, receiving a "Pollster Grade" of A++ which placed them in the top ranked position of over 100 evaluated poll/data providers in the country.

Jason B. Corley is a former intelligence community professional with over 15 years of experience in all-source analysis and national security. He served eight years in the U.S. military as an intelligence analyst, including deployment as a tactical intelligence operator during the Iraq War. After transitioning from government service, he moved into the private sector, leading strategic initiatives in cyber defense and information security. His work has spanned OSINT, incident response, MDR/EDR, and business development in high-risk, data-driven environments. He is the co-founder and Lead Pollster at Quantus Insights, where he specializes in election forecasting, political polling, and predictive analytics. Across every role, he brings a sharp focus on problem-solving, execution, and building systems that drive results. For official comments, appearances or data requests, please contact us.

Jason Corley
Quantus Insights
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